Regional pressures with global repercussions

Global markets were cautious as concern grew over inflation levels, and as central banks indicated imminent changes to their economic views and interest rate policies. 

Key economic insights from around the globe

Australia 

The race to get Australians vaccinated ramped up in September 2021. As NSW soared ahead, closing in on its 70% double dose vaccination target, plans to roll back restrictions and re-open the economy took shape. Victoria is set to ease restrictions at the end of October as it is expected to reach its 70% vaccination target. Unlike NSW residents, Victorians will have to wait until the 80% double dose target for more significant changes.

The Federal government also announced changes to the COVID-19 support payments in line with the improving vaccination rates. Once states reach 70% double dose, people will need to re-apply for their benefit each week and at 80% double dose, the COVID-19 support payments will be withdrawn completely. This is expected to hurt industries that take longer to recover from lockdowns, such as entertainment. Despite this, consumer sentiment improved in September, seemingly supported by the vaccine rollout success and the near end of lockdowns.

In other news, Australia signed a significant defence deal with the US and the UK which included building US designed nuclear-powered submarines. This alliance is designed to counter China’s growing military influence in this area, but it has come at the cost of Australia’s relationship with France, with a previous deal between the two countries to build submarines now null and void. 

US

The US ended the month grappling with its government’s debt levels that threatened the operation of government services including social security and defence. However, the debt ceiling was raised in early October, avoiding a possible services shutdown.

The unemployment rate decreased as businesses continue to reopen and jobless numbers remained above pre-Covid levels. Markets are optimistic the downward trend will continue. Indicators showed the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep interest rates on hold for now, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested it will move away from the pandemic crisis mode in the coming months.

The US also announced plans to allow quarantine free travel for vaccinated international passengers in a move to increase tourism. But the Center for Disease Control (CDC) urged US citizens not to be complacent and to make sure they are vaccinated to protect themselves.

Asia 

China found itself in the global spotlight after its second-largest property developer, Evergrande, teetered on the edge of collapse. Employing over 200,000 people, the company enlisted advisers to help manage its debt crisis in mid-September. It subsequently announced the sale of a US$1.5 billion stake in a local bank to raise capital and the People’s Bank of China also stepped in to inject cash and maintain liquidity in the financial system. Evergrande’s share price has plummeted 85% year to date. 

Japanese markets reacted positively to the resignation of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga after just one year in office. The Prime Minister has been broadly criticised for his inability to get COVID-19 under control, hampered primarily by slow vaccination rollouts, including his government’s insistence in pressing ahead with the hosting of the Olympics in July – all of which proved costly to his approval rating.

Europe 

Energy bills made headlines in Europe after low inventory, high Asian demand, high carbon prices and outages, all threatened to significantly impact households and businesses. Some companies have already stopped trading, unable to survive the price pressures. But with upcoming increased winter demand, potential government policy responses are being discussed including household subsidies and loans to energy companies. As energy is a major driver of inflation, this elevates concerns over the EU’s ongoing loose monetary policy.

How did markets react?

Global share markets were generally down over the month. In Australia, the energy sector boomed, but material and healthcare struggled, the latter impacted by increased pressure on hospitals from the lifting of lockdown restrictions. Elsewhere, the threat of an Evergrande default pulled all markets down, except for Japan, which rallied after the Prime Minister’s resignation.

Fixed interest markets remained cautious over inflation levels, particularly with the energy price issues in Europe.

What does this mean for your super?

With around 90% of allocation to growth assets such as international and Australian shares and property, members in the BT Super and BT Super for Life 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s Lifestage investment options saw weaker returns over September, receiving returns between -2.20% and -2.09% for the month. However, the one-year returns continued to be solid, with members earning between 22.72% and 22.84% for the 12 months ending 30 September 2021.

Members in the BT Super and BT Super for Life 1960s Lifestage investment option, which has growth exposure of around 60%, were less impacted by the share market declines and saw returns of -1.76%% for the month, and 15.24% over the year to 30 September 2021. 

The 1940s and 1950s Lifestage investment options are designed to have less exposure to growth assets to help cushion their members’ super balances from market fluctuations. Over the month of September, member returns were -1.26% and -1.39% respectively, with the allocation to defensive assets softening the impact of share market declines.